Tag Archives: Peter Schwartz

“What Happened for…” – Part 1: “The Long Boom” 40 years later

First in a Series

The Long Boom: A History of the World’s Future, 1980-2020, by Peter Schwartz, Peter Leyden, and Joel Hyatt (Basic Books, 2000)

We are now at the end of The Long Boom.  This one of the first books that we presented for a book synopsis.  Several clients found it to be useful, and so, we went several places to talk about it.  Today, we will talk about this book, and how much of what the authors predicted actually came true.    This is the first part of a series, called “What Happened for….”

The Long Boom: Peter Schwartz: 9780738200743: Amazon.com: Books

The books

Peter Schwartz is co-founder and Chairman of the Global Business Network. Author of the international bestseller, The Art of the Long View, he lives in Berkeley, California.  Peter Schwartz is an American futurist, innovator, author, and co-founder of the Global Business Network, a corporate strategy firm, specializing in future-think and scenario planning.  As of October 2011, he has served as Senior Vice President Strategic Planning for Salesforce.com.

Peter Leyden, former managing editor of Wired magazine and special correspondent in Asia for Newsweek, has written and spoken about technology, economics and politics since the mid-1980s. He lives in Berkeley, California.  He is the founder of Reinvent, a company that drives conversations with leading innovators about how to build a better future, and creates events and media to spread their ideas.  He’s also a frequent keynote speaker on new technologies and future trends, working through Keppler Speakers.

Joel Hyatt is Co-Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Globality.  Joel is a serial entrepreneur with
broad experience successfully launching and scaling disruptive service companies.  He was the
Co-Founder and CEO of Hyatt Legal Services, Hyatt Legal Plans (acquired by MetLife) and
Current TV (acquired by Al Jazeera).


What we thought in 1999

“Imagine this world as the authors imagine it, viewed in hindsight from 2050: We humans have fixed the damage we had done to the environment, without denting anyone’s standard of living. Cars now run on hydrogen fuel cells refilled twice a year. Machines the size of molecules and 120-year life spans are realities for today’s George and Jane Jetsons, and nothing is out of the realm of possibility not cold fusion energy, not anti-gravity devices, not cooperation with alien life forms.  This is a mind-boggling book.  These authors see the present moment as a watershed in human history. Emerging technologies and new modes of deploying human capital, they argue, are in the process of bringing about an unprecedented leap in the progress of civilization. If we can all get it right, the result will be good times throughout the planet we currently inhabit and beyond.  There will be bumps in the road the overthrow of Saudi Arabia’s government by Islamic fundamentalists will cause another oil shock in the economy, for instance. But an evolving civilization, in which all peoples are bound together by common interests and increasingly shared prosperity, will be able to work through such rough patches, in the view of Schwartz, Leyden, and Hyatt.”    (BookPage, Review by Thomas WoodOctober 1999)

“A book for anyone seeking an uplifting view of the future. The authors argue that the world is halfway through a “long boom” of 40 years that started in 1980. The second half could be more vigorous than the first, achieving robust global growth rates ranging from a plausible four to an imaginative six percent a year. Billed not as a prediction but as a desirable vision, the book identifies the technological and economic possibilities and warns of the political obstacles that need to be overcome. It argues that innovation is proceeding apace, especially in computation, communication, biotechnology, and even nanotechnology — controlled processes taking place at the atomic level. Meanwhile, the mobilization of technology, particularly fuel cells, can avoid the environmental costs of more rapid growth. In turn, economic growth can lift millions into an emerging international middle class, creating a new global identity that coexists comfortably with traditional cultures. Writing from the perspective of historians in 2050, the authors project a big picture stripped of the momentary tribulations that dominate daily life and preoccupy contemporary writers.”  (Foreign Affairs, March/April 2000)

What we now know

The U.S. is officially in its longest expansion, breaking the record of 120 months of economic growth from March 1991 to March 2001, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Starting in June of 2009, this record-setting run saw GDP growing cumulatively by 25%, far slower than previous expansions.

While the unemployment rate has dropped to 3.6% in May, the lowest since 1969, job growth has been relatively slower than during other postwar recoveries.   (CNBC, July 2, 2019)

“Nearly every country confronting the coronavirus pandemic sees a recession in its future. A staggering 3.3 million unemployment claims were filed last week in the United States alone. Economists are predicting that the damage to the global economy could last months if not years, despite bailout packages and massive stimulus efforts like the $2 trillion intervention approved by Congress this week….The coronavirus, though, is a force unto its own, and it is overwhelming even the strongest and most privileged of countries. Australia, along with many other parts of the world, has come to a virtual halt, shuttering its borders and restricting domestic travel….Every day brings another round of huge layoffs. On Thursday, Flight Center, a major travel agency, fired 6,000 people. Two of Australia’s largest retailers also said they would close for at least four weeks, leaving 15,000 more people out of work — on top of tens of thousands more from smaller businesses, many of whom have never been unemployed….Before the coronavirus, about 700,000 Australians were receiving unemployment benefits, known as job-seeker payments. Over the next few months, some economists say, that number could jump to 1.7 million — and the country’s social safety net is already buckling under the load.   (New York Times, March 27, 2020)

What this means

Forty years have passed.  Did the boom last?  How did the world change?   If so, it is for the better?

Under any definition, this was clearly a boom.  The Clinton years were the greatest and profound in the era.  Yet, in spite of the successes, the White House was only able to hold on for eight years.  After Gore was defeated, Bush was elected, and the country turned to ignite support against terrorists.   Citizens were outraged with revenge, and the country adopted defensive strategies.

There were setbacks   We lost our leading status in science, medicine, and technology to Japan.  The price of oil rocketed to new heights, with fees over four dollars a gallon.   We have not taken care of the environment.  Global warming is stronger than ever, and while people give lip service about it, is not that very high in the priorities that politicians talk and campaign about.  The crisis in health care shows no progress.  America still has the world’s greatest health care that very few people can use.

We learned to fight against threats to cybersecurity.   We found ways to limit illegal immigration in a humane way.   We found worked around efforts to undermine our political enemies.  Expenses against the budget became out of control, especially during the coronavirus, where businesses closed, and many people were out of work.  But until recently, we had very low employment, and as I write this today, as an example, Texas has 450,000 new jobs, just waiting to filled.

Yet, America stayed strong.  The creative mind has never been stronger.  The GDP has shown we are productive.    When we are safe to work again, there is no reason that think that we will not have good recovery,

Perhaps a look of the world shows that it has been a great division between those “have,” and those that “do not” – for many things.  It is not just America.   Looking back 40 years, that is the biggest difference in the world.  We have more babies, but are less able to bring them in a world that they can be proud of, and prosper.   Like much of the boom, we find that “less” is not always better than “more.”

I invite comments on this post.   I am interested in your reactions.


Thoughts on “What Happened To…….”

Please stay tuned for posts that will have a theme such as “what happened to……

Such as:
   At least 10 years later,
  1. How well did it work?
  2. What were the results?
  3. What is different now?
  4. What are the implications for future work?
Each post will review the content of the book, and then, post and answer questions.
Eventually, we will post an on-line symposium with five experts to share their thoughts about this topic.
These are the the featured books:

SuperCorp: How Vanguard Companies Create Innovation, Profits, Growth, and Social Good by Rosabeth Moss Kanter (Crown Business, 2009)

The Long Boom: A Vision For The Coming Age of Prosperity by Peter SchwartzPeter LeydenJoel Hyatt  (Basic Books 1999)

10-10-10: A Life-Transforming Idea by Suzy Welch (Scribner, 2009)

Customers for Life: How to Turn That One-Time Buyer Into a Lifetime Customer by Carl Sewell  and Paul Brown (Currency, 2009)

The Long Baby Boom: An Optimistic Vision for a Graying Generation by Carl Sewell  and Paul Brown  (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2008)

Still Looking for a Booming Future?

I am amazed how fascinated we are with the future.  Years ago, Stephen Covey told us that the best way to predict the future was to create it.

We also seem to love to read about it.   Here is one more new book that tells us what the United States will look like in 2025.  The book is called The Next Boom by Jack Plunkett (BizExecs Press, 2010).

In the book, Plunkett predicts that we will add 40 million people to the United States population in the next 15 years.  He predicts a greater presence of engineers and scientists in countries such as China, India, and Brazil.  And, he believes we will see a rise in the production of goods and services from markets in Southeast Asia and Africa.

I remember how much I loved to present synopses in 1999-2000 of The Long Boom by Peter Schwartz, Peter Leyden, and Joel Hyatt (Perseus Books, 1999).  I have to admit that it really feels good to read about a prosperous future.

But what a crash when that future is not fulfilled!  The “long boom” wasn’t very long.  The “next boom” may never bloom, or boom. 

Speaking only for myself, I am not willing to take the risk.  Needless to say, I won’t be reading this one or presenting it at our synopsis.  I’ve crashed once too often about unfulfilled futures.

But that is just me.  What about you?  Do you like reading about the future? 

Let’s talk about it!

Why Kotkin’s Book Won’t Be in My Basket at Checkout

A recent book by Joel Kotkin that is receiving critical acclaim is entitled The Next Hundred Million:  America in 2050 (Penguin Press, 2010).   You can read two reviews of the book below and decide if it sparks enough interest for you to read it.  I have chosen not to do so, and of course, it will not be featured at the First Friday Book Synopsis in Dallas.

I enjoy being upbeat and optimistic.  I like sunny forecasts.  But, this is a genre of books that I find myself increasingly uninterested in.  My major reason for doing so is that the future is difficult to predict, and very few who try to do so in writing ever get it right. 

I guess I lost my enthusiasm for this type of book with The Long Boom:  A Vision for the Coming Age of Prosperity by Peter Schwartz, Peter Layden, and Joel Hyatt (Basic Books, 2000).   When I read and presented this book, I was pretty excited about its content.  Ten years later, we can see that the impact better leads to a different title:  the short boom.  All the predictions were fun to read and energizing to visualize.  But, much of what we read there just did not materialize.

Admittedly, books that predict the future are difficult to write.  There is certainly a skill in examining trends and patterns, then using sign reasoning to leap forward to visualize another time and place.   There are plenty of people who get energized by these titles.   I just happen not to be one of them.

I remember the old phrase, “the best way to predict the future is to create it.”    Unfortunately, writing about it does not create it.  It simply writes about it.  They write.  We buy.  Then, we get let down.

I want to be clear.   I am not criticizing Kotkin’s book.  I haven’t read it.  I don’t plan to.  I can’t criticize a book that I haven’t read.  All my best to him for his success with the book.    I think that there will continue to be enough interested readers to keep it on the best-seller list for awhile.

You can make up your own mind about what you think of this genre of books. 

After you read the reviews below, let’s talk about it.

From Publishers Weekly

Kotkin (The City) offers a well-researched—and very sunny—forecast for the American economy, arguing that despite its daunting current difficulties, the U.S. will emerge by midcentury as the most affluent, culturally rich, and successful nation in human history. Nourished by mass immigration and American society’s proven adaptability, the country will reign supreme over an industrialized world beset by old age, bitter ethnic conflicts, and erratically functioning economic institutions. Although decreasing social mobility will present a challenge, demographic resources will give the U.S. an edge over its European rivals, which will be constrained by shrinking work forces and rapidly proliferating social welfare commitments. Largely concerned with migration patterns within the U.S., the book also offers a nonpartisan view of America’s strengths, identifying both pro-immigration and strongly capitalist policies as sources of its continued prosperity. However, Kotkin tends to gloss over the looming and incontrovertible challenges facing the country and devotes limited space to the long-term consequences posed by the current recession, the rise of India and China, and the resulting competition over diminishing energy resources. Nevertheless, his confidence is well-supported and is a reassuring balm amid the political and economic turmoil of the moment. (Feb.)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From Booklist

Assuming that America will increase to 400 million people in the next 40 years, Kotkin divines demographic consequences in this catalog of predictions. Optimistic in contrast to elite opinions on the Left and the Right that see America in decline, Kotkin’s views are not certitudes: the author regularly cautions that if certain things are not done, such as ensuring an economic environment of upward mobility, his vision of the future may not come to pass. Caveats dealt with, Kotkin essentially asks where the extra 100 million will live. Because some of them are already here—those born or who have immigrated since the early 1980s—Kotkin tends to extrapolate present trends. After a career-starting stint in the big city, family-raising aspirations send people to the suburbs and, increasingly in the Internet-connected world, to small towns and rural areas. Describing specific locales, Kotkin anticipates a revitalization of older suburbs and even a repopulation of the Great Plains. As sociological futurists engage with Kotkin’s outlook, the opportunity for critics lies in the author’s lesser attention to the environmental and political effects of population growth. –Gilbert Taylor